RESULT Beats Claude Opus 5.5: 3.6× faster, 40× cheaper →

Trained on
the trenches.

Charge is an open 30B model that reads Pons launches on Robinhood Chain. It learned from launches and what happened to each one next. On launches it had never seen, it beat Claude Opus 5.5 at the question trenchers ask all day: will this double before it halves? In a fraction of the time (3.6× faster) and at 40× lower cost per read.

$CHARGE CASoon
Open weights on Hugging Face · Qwen3-30B-A3B fine-tune · Apache 2.0 · launched on Surplus
charge-30b · reading the tape
0%
 
 held-out read · Oct 10–12
Pons launches studied
74,085snapshots, each with its outcome
AUC on launches it never saw
30Bparameters, 3B active per token
40×+cheaper per read than Opus 5.5
Try it

Paste a Pons launch.

Charge builds the facts card from the public tape and reads it, live. ETH-paired Pons launches up to 3 days old.

A few reads a minute per person. Not advice.

Replay the tape

Pick a launch. Read the call.
Then see what happened.

These are Charge's real reads of launches it never saw in training (October 10–12). We picked them to show every kind of outcome, misses included. The full numbers are further down.

The facts Charge saw

Charge's read

Results

3B active parameters
vs the frontier.

Same facts, same question: will this launch double before it halves in the next 24 hours? Scored on launches none of them had seen.

0.5 = coin flipAUC · 1.0 = perfect
of held-out reads well-formed ()
in the same band as its teacher, within one band
40×+cheaper per read than Opus 5.5: about $0.07 per 1,000 reads on the Surplus API, vs $3–8 for Opus at list price

How we tested. snapshots of live Pons launches from October 10–12, none seen in training; every launch that doubled first is included. Each model saw the same facts. The Claude models also got a primer on how Pons works and the 6% base rate, and rated 20 snapshots at a time. AUC weights each launch once. Test numbers come from Charge 30B trained only on launches before October 10; the released model is the same recipe trained on every launch through October 12.

What a charge means

Five bands. Real outcomes.

Charge ranks a launch against every live launch it learned from: 90% means busier and stronger than 90% of them. Here is what launches in each band did over the next 24 hours, from Charge's own reads on the test days.

Higher charge means more action, both ways. The hottest reads halve first more often than they double. The runners come from the top bands, and so do the round-trips.
What it's for

Less noise. Earlier reads.
Fewer round-trips.

🪫

Noise filter

⚡

Early read

⚠️

Round-trip warning

of ⚡ reads halved before they doubled; doubled first. The typical one dropped to of the read price within a day. Charged is a reason to watch, not to chase.

Test days: October 10–12, 2026, one launchpad. Small samples, and markets change.

How it's built

From the tape to Charge 30B.

01

The tape

Public trades of every ETH-paired Pons launch since October 5 that got at least one real trade (about a quarter never do): price, flows, buyers, sellers, holders, the dev's own trades, ticker copies, socials. Nothing private.

02

Snapshots

Each launch read at fixed ages and every 10 minutes while it traded: 65,542 moments, each labelled with what happened in the next 24 hours.

03

A teacher

A gradient-boosted model learns the odds from those labels, with every launch weighted once so a long-running coin can't dominate.

04

The reads

Every answer is written from the data by templates: the band, the measured outcome mix and the facts that moved the odds for launches like it. No text from another LLM.

05

Charge 30B

Qwen3-30B-A3B fine-tuned with LoRA (attention and experts) on examples, including general chat turns so it still talks like a model, then merged into open weights.

06

The exam

Trained on launches before October 10, tested after. Scored against what really happened, and against Claude Opus 5.5 and Sonnet 5.5.

Next

One recipe. More trenches.

Every Charge model is built the same way: public tape, real outcomes, an exam on launches it never saw, and a head-to-head with frontier models. Here's what's next.

⏰

Charge Wake

Launches hours to weeks old that start trading again. Is the wakeup real, or one wallet pushing a dead chart?

Robinhood Chain · Pons · next

🦄

Charge v4

Coins launched straight into Uniswap pools on Robinhood Chain, where most of the action outside Pons happens.

Robinhood Chain · direct launches · next

◎

Charge Sol

The biggest trench. The same read for pump.fun launches, trained on hundreds of thousands of them.

Solana · pump.fun · after

Where this goes

Our 30% of the creator fees runs Charge: free reads here, in the bot and in the API, the GPUs, Surplus CREDIT, and training the next model.

🔑

One token, every model

$CHARGE isn't tied to the one model on Surplus. Wake, v4 and Sol ship into this site, the bot and the Charge API under the same token. No sibling coins.

⚡

Free reads, premium with $CHARGE

Reads stay free for everyone. The Charge API for builders comes next, with $CHARGE unlocking premium access: more reads, batch and live-board endpoints.

🗳️

You pick what's next

Tell us what to train. With real demand, a new Charge can be up in a day or two, examined the same way before it ships.

Run it

Open weights. One API. A bot.

FAQ

Questions.

Is this financial advice?

No. Charge reads public trading facts and tells you how launches like this one did next. Even its hottest band halves first more often than it doubles. What you do with a read is your call.

Does Charge see the chain?

No. It reads the facts you give it: age, market cap and ATH, trades, buyers and sellers per window, holders, the dev's own trades, first-30-second buyers, the creator's other launches, socials. The Charge bot fills those in from a contract address.

Why do the hottest reads halve so often?

Because the hottest tapes are the most crowded. Busy launches move in both directions: the runners come from the top bands, and so do most of the round-trips. A high charge says "this is where the action is", not "this is safe".

What can't it do?

It doesn't read contracts, so honeypots and hook traps need a sell simulation. It can't see the team, the news or who is about to shill. It was tested on two days of one launchpad. It will be wrong, often.

Where do the creator fees go?

$CHARGE launched on the Surplus LLM launchpad. Its creator fees go to a fixed splitter: 60% to the hosting vault that keeps Charge live on the Surplus API, 30% to the builder, 10% buys and burns $SURPLUS. The builder's 30% runs Charge: free reads on this site, in the Telegram bot and the API, GPUs before graduation, Surplus CREDIT after, and training new models.

What is $CHARGE for?

$CHARGE is the token for every Charge model, not just the one on Surplus. Reads stay free for everyone. Next comes the Charge API for builders, with $CHARGE unlocking premium access: more reads, batch and live-board endpoints. Charge Wake, v4 and Sol ship into the same site, bot and API under the same token.

Will Charge get better?

If people use it, yes. The Surplus API serves the exact commit $CHARGE launched with; newer and new Charge models ship to this site, the bot and the API under the same token, with their weights on Hugging Face. Tell us on X what to train next: with real demand, a new Charge can be up in a day or two.

Is there a dev wallet?

The launch wallet can't buy on Surplus launches. Any dev buy is made from a public wallet, listed here.